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Global Precipitation and Temperature Outlook for September 2015

The outlook for September 2015 indicates predominately warmer temperatures in the Southeast US, Central America, South America, much of Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, Iran, India, Southeast Asia, Indonesia, and Malaysia. Exceptionally drier conditions are expected in Central America, northern South America, coastal West Africa, central India, Malaysia, and Indonesia. Wetter than normal areas include: central US, Argentina, Uganda, and Turkey.

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Water deficits may continue in Thailand, Cambodia, New Guinea

Many parts of Southeast Asia and the Pacific may continue to experience moderate to exceptional water deficits in the coming months.  Exceptional water deficits are forecast for Thailand, Cambodia, and the island of New Guinea.

South Asia: Exceptional water deficits forecast for south-central India, exceptional surpluses in Nepal, Bangladesh, Myanmar

Almost all of southern India is forecast to have at least moderate deficits. Exceptional deficits are forecast for: a large region in south-central India including northern Karnataka, Telangana, and northern Andhra Pradesh; the northern border region between Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh; portions of Odisha; and, southern Tamil Nadu. Exceptional surpluses are forecast for the Indus River Basin, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Myanmar.

Africa: Water deficits persist in West Africa, Southern Africa; surpluses in Tanzania

Exceptional deficits are forecast to persist and intensify in a swath of countries in coastal West Africa from southern Liberia to Angola, and may continue to emerge in southern Africa. Exceptional surpluses are expected in Tanzania and surrounding areas.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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