In this new series, we examine recent prolonged drought in the Yangtze River Basin, its impact on the affected regions, and the historical accuracy of the Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) forecasts in East Asia.
Exceptional deficits will spread throughout the Russian Plain, northern coastal Russia, and regions near Lake Baikal. Surpluses are expected in some portions of northern Russia and north-central Kazakhstan.
Severe to exceptional deficits will occur throughout most of eastern Europe. Severe to exceptional surpluses in western Europe are expected to dissipate.
The forecast through December indicates water surpluses in the Macintyre River region of New South Wales and the Avon River catchment in Western Australia. Deficits are forecast from Perth past Busselton, and in Tasmania and New Caledonia.
The forecast through December indicates that widespread water deficits will retreat from Central Asia and the Volga River Basin but persist in the Tura River Watershed to Tyumen and in the Central Siberian Plateau. Surpluses are forecast in the Yenisei Basin.
The forecast through December indicates water deficits in north-central Mexico, pockets along the Gulf of Mexico, and in the south. Surpluses are forecast from southern Durango through Morelos, and in Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Jamaica.
The forecast through December indicates that water deficits will shrink, most notably in southern regions of the Prairie Provinces and British Columbia, though vast areas of deficit will persist nationwide.
The forecast through December indicates that water deficits will shrink and downgrade in Turkey, the Levant, northern Saudi Arabia, and northern Iran. Exceptional deficits will emerge in southern Oman and deficits will intensify in Riyadh Province, Saudi Arabia.