Blog — ISCIENCES

Central Asia & Russia: Water surpluses forecast in central Kazakhstan, deficits in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan

Exceptional water surpluses are forecast in north central Kazakhstan and in central Russia from the Volga River through the Ural Mountains to the western edge of the Central Siberian Plateau. Water deficits are expected in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, western Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

Middle East: Water deficits forecast to persist in southern Turkey, emerge in UAE

The water forecast includes a variety of conditions in the Mideast, though water deficits remain the dominate factor. Deficits are forecast across southern Turkey, Cyprus, much of Iraq, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, and western Oman. Deficits of varying severity are forecast across Saudi Arabia and in Yemen as well, but both deficits and surpluses are predicted in some areas. Surpluses are forecast along the Iraq-Iran border and in a few pockets on Oman’s coast.

Canada: Water deficits forecast with pockets of exceptional deficits in BC, AB, MB, ON, QB, and NL

The outlook for Canada April through June indicates widespread water deficits of varying severity with pockets of exceptional deficits expected in parts of British Columbia, Alberta, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, and Newfoundland. From July through September conditions are expected to improve somewhat, as larger pockets of exceptional deficits shrink. However deficits will persist across the country.

Australia & New Zealand: Water deficits across northern Australia & Tasmania; North Island, New Zealand

The forecast through December 2016 indicates the presence of persistent water deficits across northern Australia and in Victoria, Tasmania, and North Island, New Zealand. A transition from moderate deficits to moderate surpluses in easternmost tributaries of the Darling and Murray Rivers forecast beginning in August.

Europe: Water deficits forecast to persist in Mediterranean Europe, emerge in Baltics & Scandinavia

Water deficits are forecast to persist in parts of Mediterranean Europe, especially southern Spain, Sardinia, Sicily, southern Greece, and Crete. Central and Eastern Europe will transition from surplus to deficits, with the exception of eastern Hungary, which will remain wet. Deficits are forecast for Northern Europe, including Finland, Sweden, the Baltics, and later on, Norway.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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