In this new series, we examine recent prolonged drought in the Yangtze River Basin, its impact on the affected regions, and the historical accuracy of the Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) forecasts in East Asia.
Exceptional deficits will spread throughout the Russian Plain, northern coastal Russia, and regions near Lake Baikal. Surpluses are expected in some portions of northern Russia and north-central Kazakhstan.
Severe to exceptional deficits will occur throughout most of eastern Europe. Severe to exceptional surpluses in western Europe are expected to dissipate.
The forecast through March indicates water deficits from Virginia through South Carolina, and in Florida, New Mexico, and the Southern Plains. Surpluses will persist from Michigan into New England, and in the eastern region of the Dakotas.
The forecast through March indicates that water surpluses will remain widespread and intense in much of Southeast Asia but will shrink and downgrade in the Philippines, Indonesia, and Pacific regions.
The forecast through March indicates widespread water surpluses in India, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Pakistan. Regions with a forecast of exceptional surplus include Nepal, West Bengal, Kerala, Karnataka, and Pakistan. Deficits will persist in India’s Far Northeast.
The forecast through March indicates widespread water surpluses in the Amazon Basin, Southeast Brazil, and Bolivia. Areas of deficit include western Venezuela into Colombia, from southern Brazil through Uruguay into eastern Argentina, and Chile.
The forecast through March indicates near-normal water conditions in much of the region along with persistent and emerging surpluses. Areas of surplus include central Syria, Cyprus, central Israel, Gaza, West Bank, Medina Province in Saudi Arabia, and the central Zagros Mountains of Iran.