Middle East: Persistent & emerging surpluses are forecast

25 January 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast for the 12-month period ending September indicates widespread water deficits on the Arabian Peninsula and in Turkey, and deficits in parts of the Levant and Iran.

Severe to exceptional deficits are predicted throughout much of Saudi Arabia along with transitional conditions. United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Bahrain will also see intense deficits. Mixed conditions are forecast in Yemen with surpluses north of Sanaa and deficits dominating much of the rest of the nation, becoming mild as they reach through southern Oman.

Turkey can expect deficits throughout much of its extent, exceptional in Central Anatolia and a pocket southwest of Lake Van. In Iraq, deficits will be widespread and intense west of the Euphrates River and in the south where anomalies will be exceptional. Mixed conditions are expected in the Levant, including deficits in Jordan, southern Lebanon, and eastern Syria where transitions are also forecast. Surpluses are forecast in central Syria, central Israel, and Cyprus.

In Iran, moderate to severe deficits are expected in the northwest and in Yazd and Isfahan Provinces in the center of the country, leading north where deficits and transitional conditions are forecast. Surpluses will skirt much of Iran’s Caspian Coast.

In Georgia, intense deficits are expected on the coast including Batumi, and a pocket north of the Kura (Mtkvari) River. Moderate deficits are expected in Armenia and Azerbaijan.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through March indicates near-normal water conditions in much of the region. Exceptional surpluses will increase in central Syria and surpluses are also forecast in Cyprus, central Israel, Gaza, and West Bank. The Arabian Peninsula can expect moderate to extreme surpluses in the Saudi province of Medina on the Red Sea and small, moderate pockets scattered across the northern region of the nation and into Iraq. Exceptional surpluses are forecast in Yemen north of Sanaa and spanning the central Saudi border. In Iran, surpluses will persist along central Caspian Coast and into the northeast, and in the central Zagros Mountains. Surpluses are forecast in northeastern Turkey near the Black Sea Coast. Areas with a forecast of deficit include coastal Georgia and a pocket north of Tbilisi, and eastern Azerbaijan.

From April through June, surpluses in the region will shrink and widespread moderate to severe deficits will emerge in Saudi Arabia with exceptional anomalies in Tabuk Province on the northern Red Sea. Pockets of moderate deficit are expected in the other nations on the Arabian Peninsula. Some generally moderate deficits are expected in Iraq west of the Euphrates and pockets of Jordan. Mild to moderate deficits will emerge in Turkey with more intense pockets in Central Anatolia and the northeast. Deficits elsewhere include Azerbaijan and northwestern and central Iran. Pockets of surplus will persist in northwestern Yemen, central Syria, central Israel, and the central Zagros Mountains and central Caspian Coast of Iran.

In the final quarter – July through September – deficits will increase in extent and intensity throughout the region. Surpluses will persist in northwestern Yemen.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Flash flooding struck several areas of the Middle East in January, causing significant disruption in a region more accustomed to water shortages.

Cars were submerged on the streets of Farwaniya Governorate in Kuwait and many roads, tunnels, and bridges were closed. Emergency teams rescued over 100 people.

Six people died during flooding in Oman. Muscat, Al Batinah South and Ad Dakhiliyah were especially hard hit.

Eight deaths were reported in southern Iran, at least 3,000 people were displaced, and relief teams were deployed in 87 cities in over half of Iran’s provinces. Precipitation took the form of snow in some regions with up to six feet reported in mountainous areas. Kurdish provinces in the north experienced blackouts, road blockages, and price hikes on food and services.

Last summer’s drought devastated grain harvests, pushing Iraq, Iran, and Turkey to rely heavily on grain imports.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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