South Asia: Water surpluses will persist in many regions

South Asia: Water surpluses will persist in many regions

26 January 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through September indicates water surpluses in many regions, particularly India, Sri Lanka, and Nepal.

Surpluses ranging from moderate to exceptional are forecast from southern India through Sri Lanka. Moderate surpluses along with some severe pockets are expected in Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh, along Maharashtra’s coast, and in Gujarat’s southern half. Surpluses will form a path through eastern Rajasthan, becoming extreme to exceptional in Haryana. Intense surpluses are also forecast for Jammu and Kashmir. In the nation’s east, widespread moderate surpluses are expected in West Bengal and Jharkhand though anomalies will be more intense in the Ganges Delta. Deficits are forecast in India’s Far Northeast, exceptional in Assam.

In Nepal, surpluses will be widespread, reaching into Bhutan and India, and will be exceptional on the Gandaki River. Surpluses in Bangladesh will be primarily in the west and the Delta. Pakistan’s north, central region, and southeast will see surpluses. Afghanistan can expect some deficits in the north and surpluses in Kandahar Province.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through March indicates widespread, intense surpluses in southern India along with some small transitional pockets in Kerala and Tamil Nadu and a small pocket of deficit in Andhra Pradesh. Moderate to severe surpluses will persist in the center of the country and along the west coast. Transitional conditions are expected in Gujarat. Surpluses will persist in eastern Rajasthan and Haryana, the far north, West Bengal and its inland neighbors, and along the Nepalese border, and will increase along Odisha’s southern coast. Anomalies will be exceptional in West Bengal and Haryana. Deficits will persist in India’s Far Northeast. Surpluses will remain widespread and intense in Nepal and into western Bhutan, and moderate to severe in Bangladesh. In Sri Lanka, surpluses are expected to downgrade. In Pakistan intense surpluses will re-emerge in the center of the country, persist in the southeast, and downgrade somewhat in the far north. Some pockets of surplus are forecast in Afghanistan near Mazar-e Sharif and in Ghazni and Kandahar Provinces.

From April through June, surpluses will retreat from West Bengal; moderate in central India; persist in much of the south but retreat from Kerala and southern Tamil Nadu; retreat from the west coast; and re-emerge in Gujarat. Surpluses from eastern Rajasthan through Haryana will persist, but anomalies in the far north will shrink. Moderate to severe deficits are expected in the Far Northeast and a pocket in northeastern Madhya Pradesh. Surpluses will persist along the India-Nepal border, retreat from Bhutan, shrink and moderate in Nepal, and shrink to a few pockets in Bangladesh. Moderate surpluses are expected in Sri Lanka. Surpluses will persist in central Pakistan and shrink in the north. Pockets of surplus will persist in Afghanistan near Mazar-e Sharif and in Kandahar Province.

The forecast for July through September indicates deficits in India’s Far Northeast, near Mazar-e Sharif in Afghanistan, and along the southern border of Kandahar Province into Baluchistan, Pakistan. Widespread moderate surpluses are forecast for central India and pockets in the Gangetic Plain and the south. Surpluses are expected in central and southeastern Pakistan, along the Gandaki River in Nepal, and northern Sri Lanka.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Heavy snowfall in late January left over 40 people dead in Afghanistan, dozens injured, and 2,000 homes destroyed.

In a resort area near Pakistan’s capital of Islamabad 22 people died when over four feet (one meter) of snow fell overnight, leaving hundreds of vehicles stuck on a highway, their occupants trapped. Many died of exposure in the sub-freezing temperatures and others of carbon monoxide poisoning.

More than 1,000 roads in Chennai, India are being rebuilt after the city’s roadway drainage proved no match for last November’s flooding. Flooding has become commonplace in Chennai but officials say that better materials and adequate cambering will alleviate the situation before the next monsoon. The repairs can’t come soon enough for city residents and industries - December brought torrential rainfall once again, inundating roads.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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