Blog — ISCIENCES

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Moderate to exceptional water deficits in the coming months

Many parts of Southeast Asia and the Pacific may continue to experience moderate to exceptional water deficits in the coming months. Deficits may be of the greatest extent and severity September through November and may persist through May, particularly in eastern Borneo and neighboring Sulawesi, the island of New Guinea, and the Philippines.

Africa: Forecast includes exceptional water surpluses in East Africa, deficits in coastal West Africa, southern Africa

The dominant water security issues of interest in Africa continue to be drought in Coastal West Africa and Southern Africa, and water surpluses in East Africa. Coastal West Africa may continue to experience deficits through May 2016, which may reach inland areas. Drought conditions in Southern Africa are forecast to moderate through November, though severe to exceptional deficits are possible December through May. Exceptional surpluses are expected in East Africa through May.

Middle East: Extreme to exceptional water deficits may dominate the region

Extreme to exceptional water deficits may dominate the region, including the Arabian Peninsula, Jordan, southern Iraq, and central Iran. Pockets of Turkey, Syria, and northern Iran are forecast to experience water surpluses September through November. Surplus conditions in Turkey are expected to transition to deficit beginning in February and increasing in extent and severity through May.

South Asia: Extreme to exceptional water deficits forecast for several regions of India

Extreme to exceptional water deficits are forecast in several regions of India: Central Uttar Pradesh; East Madhya Pradesh/Northwest Chhattisgarh; Maharashtra/Northern Karnataka/Telangana.

South America: Exceptional water deficits forecast for northern Brazil, surpluses in Paraguay, Uruguay, Argentina

Exceptional water deficits may continue across much of northern Brazil and coastal Peru and Chile through May 2016. Surpluses are forecast for central Paraguay, southern Brazil, Uruguay, and Argentina, and are expected to increase in extent and severity through May with widespread exceptional surpluses anticipated. Northern South America may transition from deficit to surplus March through May.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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