South Asia: Extreme to exceptional water deficits forecast for several regions of India

We are now almost through the South Asian Monsoon season. The 6-month map below is based on observed temperature and precipitation for May, June, July, and August 2015; and, forecasts for September and October 2015 issued the last week of August 2015. Extreme to exceptional deficits are forecast in several regions of India: Central Uttar Pradesh; East Madhya Pradesh/Northwest Chhattisgarh; Maharashtra/Northern Karnataka/Telangana.

India's main reservoirs are at 59 percent capacity, compared with a ten-year average of 77 percent. Drinking water has been reduced in some areas and access is limited. Thousands of hectares of sugar cane have been damaged in the drought, and hard-hit areas such as Maharashtra have resorted to selling the withered crop as cattle fodder. The 2016-17 harvest could be affected as well since cultivation must be completed within the next four months. Dried-up crops and mounting debt have made farmer suicides common.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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