In this new series, we examine recent prolonged drought in the Yangtze River Basin, its impact on the affected regions, and the historical accuracy of the Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) forecasts in East Asia.
Exceptional deficits will spread throughout the Russian Plain, northern coastal Russia, and regions near Lake Baikal. Surpluses are expected in some portions of northern Russia and north-central Kazakhstan.
Severe to exceptional deficits will occur throughout most of eastern Europe. Severe to exceptional surpluses in western Europe are expected to dissipate.
The forecast anticipates that the most intense anomalies to resolve throughout most of Australia and New Zealand, though moderate to severe surpluses are expected to occur in eastern provinces of Australia.
The forecast anticipates moderate surplus to spread across much of India, with exceptional surplus expected to expand in size in southernmost regions. Exceptional deficits are expected to persist in regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits in western and southern Russia will shrink considerably, with near-normal conditions appearing throughout most of the remaining regions. Southwestern Russia and Kazakhstan can anticipate intense surplus.
The forecast anticipates exceptional deficits to expand throughout Saudi Arabia, continuing down into Yemen and Oman. Jordan, Iraq and Iran are expected to observe similarly intense expansion of exceptional deficits.