Central Asia & Russia: Surplus to expand in SW Russia, Kazahkstan

Central Asia & Russia: Surplus to expand in SW Russia, Kazahkstan

29 January 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in September 2024 indicates that exceptional deficits in western and southern Russia will shrink considerably, with near-normal conditions appearing throughout most of the remaining regions. Southwestern Russia and Kazakhstan can anticipate intense surplus. 

Extreme to exceptional deficits are anticipated in: 

  • Western Russia, spanning most central regions of the Western Siberian Plain. 

  • Northern Russia, spread throughout northern coastal regions of Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, and near the settlement of Navy Port. 

  • Southeastern Russia, throughout central, southern, and eastern regions of the Irkutsk Oblast. These deficits are expected to continue north into the Olekminskiy Ulus district, as well as most of the southern Sakha Republic. 

  • Uzbekistan, widespread throughout most central regions of the country, as well as the majority of Turkmenistan.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

  • Southern Russia, throughout the Altai Republic. 

  • Kazakhstan, widespread throughout northern and eastern regions of the country. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through March 2024 anticipates that exceptional deficits will remain widespread in central portions of the Western Siberian Plain and regions north of the Altai Krai. These deficits continue east into southern regions of the Krasnoyarsk Krai and the Irkutsk Oblast, as well as throughout most of the Sakha Republic. Extreme to exceptional surplus is expected to occur in regions north of Lake Baikal and northern portions of the Taymyrsky Dolgano-Nenetsky District. Further south, similar surpluses are anticipated in the Altai Republic and northwestern Kazahkstan.

From April through June 2024, intense surpluses are expected to reappear in northwestern to northern Kazakhstan, along with deficits further north in the Yamalo-Nenets and Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrugs.  Some deficits are expected to linger in Irkutsk Oblast, near the city of Irkutsk. Surpluses are expected to continue in northeastern Russia in the Olenyoksky District of the Sakha Republic, as are regions further south in the Altai Republic.

The forecast for the final months – July 2024 through September 2024 – expects most anomalies in the area to further dissipate. Northern coastal regions of Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug and along the coast of the Pechora Sea are expected to observe exceptional deficits. Similarly intense deficits are expected in southeastern regions of the Katangsky District. Deficits are expected to remerge in eastern Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, while severe to extreme surpluses are expected to continue in northwestern Kazakhstan.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Meteorologists in Kaliningrad recently reported that 840 records were broken in Russia for highest temperatures throughout the country, 139 for lowest temperatures, and 63 records for precipitation. Throughout 2023, residents of Kaliningrad witnessed intense temperatures and prolonged drought, as well as destructive flooding. In May, the region reported its driest month on record, while September was recorded as the warmest month in the region’s history, reaching 21 degrees Celsius. 

On January 19th, the Asian Development Bank published a manual providing an overview of climate-driven stressors that affect transportation infrastructure in Central Asia, proposing some strategies for adaptation. The manual states that there is likely to be an increase in average annual temperature of about two degrees Celsius by 2050. For 2085, temperatures are expected to increase 2.0 to 5.5 degrees in Kyrgyzstan, and 2.2 to 5.7 Celsius in Tajikistan. Storms are expected to increase in intensity and frequency, with rainfall levels expected to rise 50% in Kyrgyzstan and 30% in Uzbekistan by 2085. 

Recent images from satellites depicted intense, daily dust storms in regions of Turkmenistan from November to December. Areas most affected include the Mary region, central and southern Lebap, and southeastern portions of Ahal. The most severe of the dust storms occurred November 21st, reducing visibility to 50 meters. Through the months of November and December, average monthly temperatures rose 5-6 degrees Celsius above typical temperatures in most regions of the country. Extremely low levels of precipitation were also recorded, with some regions reporting up to 40% less precipitation than average. 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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