Blog — ISCIENCES

China, Mongolia, & South Korea: Drought to persist in northern China, Mongolia; diminish in S. Korea

Deficit conditions in North China including the North China Plain and Mongolia are expected to dominate the 12-month period July 2015 through June 2016, with some areas experiencing both deficits and surpluses. Widespread surpluses are forecast for Southeast China, which may be of exceptional severity in Fujian and along the Pearl River (Zhujiang). However, both deficits in the North and surpluses in the South are forecast to diminish in severity during the latter part of the forecast period.

Australia: Exceptional water deficits to persist near Melbourne, Tasmania, Perth; north may transition to surplus

The forecast through June 2016 indicates a transition to water surpluses in the north and along central rivers. However, exceptional deficits may persist in southern Victoria, southern South Australia, Tasmania, and from Perth southward. Moderate deficits may persist in North Island, New Zealand.

Europe: Transition forecast from water deficits to surpluses in Central Europe

Widespread water deficits may persist in much of Continental Europe while surpluses may continue in Ireland, Scotland, and northern Sweden. Though deficits are expected to persist in much of Europe for the next few months, they may diminish and transition to moderate surpluses in Central Europe, particularly Germany, January through June 2016.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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