In this new series, we examine recent prolonged drought in the Yangtze River Basin, its impact on the affected regions, and the historical accuracy of the Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) forecasts in East Asia.
Exceptional deficits will spread throughout the Russian Plain, northern coastal Russia, and regions near Lake Baikal. Surpluses are expected in some portions of northern Russia and north-central Kazakhstan.
Severe to exceptional deficits will occur throughout most of eastern Europe. Severe to exceptional surpluses in western Europe are expected to dissipate.
The forecast indicates that intense deficits will mostly diminish in western regions of the country. Severe to exceptional surplus is expected to continue throughout the Northern Territory and Queensland.
The 12-month forecast ending in January 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will linger in northwestern and southern China. Surpluses will persist in southwestern and southeastern China.
The forecast anticipates that exceptional deficits will remain in areas of Mainland Southeast Asia, and mostly vanish from regions of Maritime Southeast Asia. Exceptional surplus is expected to expand in the latter.
The forecast indicates that most exceptional deficits in southern India will dissipate, with most of the remaining regions observing moderate to severe surplus. Some northernmost states of India, as well as some pockets of Pakistan, will experience deficits of varying intensity.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits widespread throughout Russia will downgrade significantly, though still remain in small, isolated areas of the country. Intense surplus is expected to appear in southwestern regions of Russia and in northern to eastern Kazakhstan.