Australia & New Zealand: Surplus continues in Northern Territory, Queensland

Australia & New Zealand: Surplus continues in Northern Territory, Queensland

31 May 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in January 2025 indicates that intense deficits will mostly diminish in western regions of the country. Severe to exceptional surplus is expected to continue throughout the Northern Territory and Queensland. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

  • Throughout most northern and central regions of the Northern Territory. 

  • Northern Queensland, with the most intense anomalies occurring in central to eastern areas of the Yorke Peninsula. 

  • Eastern to southeastern New South Wales, in coastal regions south of Sydney. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas: 

  • Southwestern coastal regions of Western Australia, near the city of Albany.

  • North-central Western Australia, near the Mueller Ranges. 

  • Southern and eastern coastal regions of New Zealand’s South Island, with similar deficits occurring in southern coastal regions of the North Island. 

  • Tasmania, with exceptional deficits covering most of the state. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail. 

FORECAST BREAKDOWN

The forecast through July 2024 indicates that intense surplus will continue throughout most of the northern and central regions of Northern Territory, as well as throughout the Yorke Peninsula. Exceptional deficits in western coastal regions of Western Australia and southwestern South Australia are expected to transition into abnormal deficits. Exceptional deficits are expected to continue in southern coastal regions of Victoria, in most areas west of Melbourne, as well as throughout Tasmania. Deficits of similar intensity are expected to continue across the eastern coast of New Zealand’s South Island, as well as southern coastal regions of the North Island. 

From August through October 2024, exceptional deficits are expected to arise in north-central regions of the Kimberley region of Western Australia. Intense transitional conditions are anticipated nearby in eastern portions of Western Australia, as well as western areas of Northern Territory. Central Northern Territory and western areas of Queensland can anticipate extreme to exceptional surplus. Similar surplus is expected to continue in the Yorke Peninsula. 

The forecast for the final months – November 2024 through January 2025 – severe to extreme surpluses are anticipated in central regions of Northern Territory. Southeastern regions of Queensland, as well as eastern to southeastern New South Wales and Victoria, can anticipate similarly intense surplus to arise. 
Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS

Parts of Sydney and New South Wales have been hit with unrelenting rainfall since the start of May. Storms throughout the area delivered between 50 and 100 millimeters of rain over the course of the week, particularly in the Illawarra and Hunter regions. As of May 14th, meteorologist Edward Medlock stated, "This pattern has been stagnant for six days, and is expected to remain there for at least another seven days, continuing these drizzly coastal conditions. The thing we're looking at right now is whether this will lead to a record number of consecutive rain days in a row [in Sydney].” Experts anticipate a 50% chance of La Nina occurring in the Pacific Ocean this year.  

Expected complications from La Nina include stifling of agriculture on a global scale, as it typically brings wetter weather to eastern Australia and Southeast Asia and drier conditions to the Americas. "When La Nina Watch criteria have been met in the past, a La Nina event has subsequently developed around 50% of the time," it said. La Nina events result from sea surface temperatures in the Pacific becoming cooler, which the Bureau observed in the current conditions. "Sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific have been steadily cooling since December 2023," the bureau said.
NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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