Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Surplus to spread throughout Maritime Southeast Asia

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: surplus to spread throughout Maritime Southeast Asia

27 May 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in January 2025 anticipates that exceptional deficits will remain in areas of Mainland Southeast Asia, and mostly vanish from regions of Maritime Southeast Asia. Exceptional surplus is expected to expand in the latter. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas: 

  • Northern Laos, continuing south into central regions of the country near Nakai-Nam Theun National Park. These deficits continue south into areas along the border of northern Thailand.

  • Central Vietnam, primarily in the Quang Ngai, Quảng Nam, and Bình Định provinces.

  • Southernmost regions of Myanmar, near the Tanintharyi region. These deficits are expected to continue east into the Prachuap Khiri Khan province of Thailand. 

  • Southwestern Cambodia, in areas south of the Tonle Sap Lake. 

  • Northern Philippines, along northern coastal regions of the Cagayan province. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

  • Indonesia, appearing in northern regions of Sumatra, as well as western Sarawak and northwestern Kalimantan. 

  • Papua, primarily appearing in the West Papua region. Some pockets are expected in central areas, which continue into central and southeastern Papua New Guinea. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN

The forecast through July 2024 anticipates exceptional deficits in Mainland Southeast Asia to lessen in size, but persist in regions of northern Laos and central Vietnam. Deficits in the Philippines are expected to continue throughout most of the region. In Maritime Southeast Asia, intense surplus is expected in north-central Sumatra, western Kalimantan, southern Sarawak, and northern to central portions of Papua and Papua New Guinea.  

From August through October 2024, most intense deficits in Mainland and Maritime Southeast Asia are expected to resolve. Surplus is expected to expand in Maritime Southeast Asia, continuing to spread through Kalimantan, Sarawak, Sulawesi, southern Philippines, Papua, and Papua New Guinea. 

The forecast for the final months – November 2024 through January 2025 – anticipates moderate to severe surpluses to resolve in Sarawak and Kalimantan, but persist in Java, the Philippines, and southern regions of Papua and Papua New Guinea. Some moderate deficits are expected to appear in northern Vietnam.
Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS

15 deaths were reported following landslides triggered by flooding in southern regions of Indonesia’s South Sulawesi region. 115 citizens were evacuated and more than 100 houses were damaged due to the intense rainfall. Indonesia is usually vulnerable to landslides during its rainy seasons, which began in January of this year. However, the intensity of the landslides have been increased in some areas due to worsened deforestation. 

34 deaths were reported in the Indonesian region of Sumatra after intense flooding deluged the area and brought volcanic material from Mount Marapi into West Sumatra. “Until now our data shows that 34 people died: 16 in Agam and 18 in Tanah Datar. At least 18 others are injured. We are also still searching for 16 other people,” West Sumatra disaster agency spokesman Ilham Wahab told AFP. Mount Marapi is Sumatra’s most active volcano. 

Dr. Aat Pisanwanich, an expert on international economics and adviser to Intelligent Research Consultancy Co Ltd,, recently published a report on the effects of Thailand’s dry weather and consequential effects on the production of durian. He stated that durian was a leading export crop last year, with its value rising to 140 billion baht. The fruit overtook rubber and tapioca, two major exports, and currently trails slightly behind rice, Thailand’s top export. However, Aat expects the value of exports to dwindle in the next five years due to drought and strong competition from Vietnam, where the cost of production is half compared to Thailand.
NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

Copyright 2022 ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List is the property of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. It is protected by U.S. copyright laws and may not be reproduced in any way without the written permission of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of information on ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Web pages, including information derived from Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM). This information may include forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent ISCIENCES, L.L.C.’s assumptions and expectations in light of currently available information and using the highest professional standards. Actual results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. provides such information "as is," and disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will ISCIENCES, L.L.C. be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.