In this new series, we examine recent prolonged drought in the Yangtze River Basin, its impact on the affected regions, and the historical accuracy of the Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) forecasts in East Asia.
Exceptional deficits will spread throughout the Russian Plain, northern coastal Russia, and regions near Lake Baikal. Surpluses are expected in some portions of northern Russia and north-central Kazakhstan.
Severe to exceptional deficits will occur throughout most of eastern Europe. Severe to exceptional surpluses in western Europe are expected to dissipate.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will persist throughout much of northern and south-central Africa, with surpluses in the continent’s southeastern countries.
The 12-month forecast ending in April 2024 anticipates mostly normal conditions across Australia and New Zealand, with some isolated instances of intense deficits in western and eastern coastal regions, and surpluses in north-central provinces.
The 12-month forecast ending in April 2024 indicates that while the majority of Continental Europe should anticipate mostly normal conditions and mild anomalies, intense surplus will persist in southern Europe and Finland, with deficits appearing in western European countries and the Baltics.
The 12-month forecast ending in April 2024 anticipates intense deficits to occur throughout several western countries, as well as northern regions of Brazil. Transitional conditions are expected in northern regions of the Guianas.
The forecast anticipates widespread deficits throughout most countries within the region, with the most intense anomalies occurring throughout Iran. Notable surplus is expected in portions of Turkey.