The current forecast for Iran for the 6-month period ending in November 2015 has moderated relative to last month’s forecast. The revised forecast calls for widespread severe to exceptional deficits, but is generally less dire than the broad region of exceptional deficits in the prior forecast.
Europe: Deficits Forecast to Dominate Throughout Summer and Fall
In Europe, as we look back at the last three months and forward for the next nine we can see that deficits have and will dominate this period overall. Deficits observed in the spring may spread this summer over much of Europe with exceptional deficits evident along rivers. These deficits are expected to persist though diminish in severity throughout the fall, after which conditions may change to surpluses from December through February with the exception of Italy and eastern Spain.
Update: Forecast for Southern Africa Not as Dire
United States: Regionally Significant Water Anomalies Forecast in Coming Months
The continental United States is forecast to experience regionally significant water anomalies through February 2016, both deficits and surpluses:
- Exceptional drought is forecast to persist in northern California through the Pacific Northwest;
- Southern California is forecast to have characteristics of both water deficits and surpluses;
- Exceptional water surpluses are forecast for portions of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, New Mexico, and Louisiana; and,
- Severe to extreme deficits are forecast for portions of the Northeast.
Severe to Exceptional Water Deficits Forecast for Indian Monsoon Season
Severe to exceptional water deficits are forecast during the South Asian Monsoon season for large portions of India, particularly in the north in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, and in a central eastward swath that includes Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Orissa. This pattern is similar to deficits encountered during the 2014 monsoon season and, as a result, may lead to significant impacts on people, agriculture, and industry.