In this new series, we examine recent prolonged drought in the Yangtze River Basin, its impact on the affected regions, and the historical accuracy of the Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) forecasts in East Asia.
Exceptional deficits will spread throughout the Russian Plain, northern coastal Russia, and regions near Lake Baikal. Surpluses are expected in some portions of northern Russia and north-central Kazakhstan.
Severe to exceptional deficits will occur throughout most of eastern Europe. Severe to exceptional surpluses in western Europe are expected to dissipate.
The forecast indicates that concentrations of severe to exceptional surplus will persist in regions of Kazakhstan and southwestern Russia, while exceptional deficits will linger in regions near Lake Baikal.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will continue throughout northwestern China. Western and northeastern regions of China will experience severe to exceptional surpluses.
The forecast indicates that most extreme to exceptional deficits in the region will dissipate, as well as most extreme to exceptional surpluses. Moderate to severe surpluses are expected to expand throughout Papua and Papua New Guinea, as well as southern Myanmar.
The forecast indicates that severe to exceptional surpluses will expand in southern regions of India, while pockets of exceptional deficits emerge in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The forecast anticipates widespread deficits of varying intensity to occur across most of the region. Areas of surplus are expected to persist in Turkey.