Central Asia & Russia: Surplus spreads throughout N Kazakhstan, SW Russia

Central Asia & Russia: Surplus spreads throughout N Kazakhstan, SW Russia

29 August 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast ending in April 2025 indicates that concentrations of severe to exceptional surplus will persist in regions of Kazakhstan and southwestern Russia, while exceptional deficits will linger in regions near Lake Baikal. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in the following countries: 

  • Eastern Russia, in central to northern regions of Buryatia and Zabaykalsky Krai, as well as central to southern regions of Irkutsk Oblast.  

  • Northwestern Russia, in the northern coastal regions of Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug. 

  • Northern Russia, in northern coastal regions of Krasnoyarsk Krai and the Sakha Republic. 

Moderate to extreme surpluses are expected in: 

  • Northern and western Kazakhstan, widespread throughout the Aktobe, West Kazakhstan, Kostanay, Akmola, and North Kazakhstan regions. 

  • Southern Russia, in the southernmost regions of Altai Krai. These surpluses continue south into the Abai Region of eastern Kazakhstan. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through October 2024 indicates that exceptional deficits will persist in regions near Lake Baikal, predominantly in the Irkutsk Oblast, Buryatia, southern portions of the Sakha Republic, and along the northern coast of the Taymyr Peninsula. Isolated pockets of extreme to exceptional deficits will persist in central areas of the West Siberian Plain, near the cities of Noyabrsk and Nefteyugansk. Severe to exceptional surpluses will persist in northern, northwestern and eastern Kazakhstan, as well as in areas near the Russian cities of Omsk, Tyumen, Chelyabinsk, and St. Petersburg. 

From November through January 2025, moderate to severe surpluses are expected to linger near the cities of Omsk, Tyumen, Chelyabinsk, and St. Petersburg. These surpluses continue south into much of northern, northwestern, and eastern Kazakhstan. Extreme to exceptional deficits will endure in northern Buryatia, Zabaykalsky Krai, the Katangsky District, and northern areas of the Taymyr Peninsula. 

The forecast for the final months – February 2025 through April 2025, predicts that moderate to severe surplus will remain widespread in northern Kazakhstan and in southwestern Russia, near Omsk, Tyumen, Chelyabinsk, and St. Petersburg. Exceptional deficits may continue in northern regions of Buryatia and Zabaykalsky Krai, as well as northern coastal regions of Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Damages incurred from drought in the Russian region of Ingushetia is estimated to be 375.9 million rubles. Mahmud-Ali Kalimatov, the head of the Russian republic, noted that the dry conditions caused a significant amount of loss for winter and spring crop yields, destroying over 26 thousand hectares – equal to 38 percent of all sown land in Ingushetia.  The drought has affected over 200 farmers, all of which have requested aid, according to Kalimatov. 

As of August 18th, drought is threatening crops in four districts of the Rostov region. According to the North Caucasus Department for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring, the affected districts are Zernograd, Belokalitvinsky, Bokovsky, and Remontnensky. The drought is negatively impacting the region’s soil moisture, particularly for sunflower crops. 

Since spring, heavy flooding has been consistent across the region of Siberia and Far East Russia. Recently in Buryatia, officials declared a state of emergency due to flooding. The deluge destroyed local buildings and infrastructure, including several bridges, and caused the Khonkholoi dam to burst. 100 people were forced to evacuate from the Zaigraevsky and Mukhrasibirsky districts, with several others being displaced from the neighboring Transbaikalia region. 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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