In this new series, we examine recent prolonged drought in the Yangtze River Basin, its impact on the affected regions, and the historical accuracy of the Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) forecasts in East Asia.
Exceptional deficits will spread throughout the Russian Plain, northern coastal Russia, and regions near Lake Baikal. Surpluses are expected in some portions of northern Russia and north-central Kazakhstan.
Severe to exceptional deficits will occur throughout most of eastern Europe. Severe to exceptional surpluses in western Europe are expected to dissipate.
The forecast through August indicates that water deficits will moderate in Mangystau, Kazakhstan; increase in Turkmenistan; and emerge in Irkutsk Oblast, Russia, and in Surgut on the Ob River. Surpluses will persist in the Western Siberian Plain.
The forecast through August indicates many areas of intense water deficit in Quebec, Ontario, and central and northern regions of the Prairie Provinces and British Columbia. Areas of surplus include southern Manitoba, northwestern Saskatchewan, and southeastern British Columbia.
The forecast through August indicates that water surpluses will downgrade but remain widespread in eastern Australia from the Wide Bay-Burnett region of Queensland through East Gippsland, Victoria. Deficits will emerge in Top End, Northern Territory and shrink in New Zealand.
The forecast through August indicates water deficits in many regions, moderate to severe overall but more intense in Riyadh Province, Saudi Arabia; Ankara, Turkey; and Baghdad and the lower Gharraf Canal in Iraq. Surpluses are forecast in Turkey from Konya past Lake Tuz.
The forecast through August indicates moderate to severe water deficits in Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, and Puebla. Areas with a forecast of surplus include the Yucatan and pockets throughout Central America.