The forecast through October indicates that conditions of water surplus in southern Quebec and deficit in southern Alberta and Saskatchewan will normalize. Forecasts for metropolitan areas include surpluses near Toronto; deficits around Winnipeg; normal conditions near Quebec City, Montreal, Ottawa, Regina, Saskatoon, and Calgary; and near-normal conditions in Vancouver. Intense deficits will persist in large pockets of Quebec, Manitoba, and Alberta.
Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Intense water deficits forecast for S. Veracruz
The forecast through October indicates moderate to exceptional water deficits in southern Veracruz State, Mexico trailing into Chiapas, particularly in the regions of the Papaloapan and Coatzacoalcos Rivers in Veracruz. Areas of moderate surplus include northeastern Sonora between the Yaqui and Bavispe Rivers, northern Coahuila, and northern San Luis Potosí. Moderate surpluses are also forecast for Costa Rica and western Panama.
United States: Water surpluses will continue to dominate central states
Water surpluses are forecast to be the dominant anomaly in the U.S. through April 2020. Through October, significant surpluses are forecast from South Dakota into Texas and will be particularly widespread and intense in South Dakota. Surpluses are also expected in parts of the Rockies, pockets in the Southwest, nearly all of California, Michigan, pockets in the Ohio River Valley, and near Tampa Bay, Florida. Areas of deficit include the Pacific Northwest, northern Minnesota, and the Carolinas.
South America: Water deficits forecast for French Guiana, Brazil, Chile
The forecast through October indicates intense water deficits in Brazil along the Purus River, in the southern Amazon Basin, along the Xingu and Tocantins Rivers, and in eastern Pará, Rio Grande do Norte, Mato Grosso, eastern Mato Grosso do Sul, western São Paulo State, and southeastern Minas Gerais. Intense deficits are also forecast for French Guiana, southern Suriname, and northern Chile. Areas of surplus include central Paraguay and northern Argentina.
Europe: Water deficits will downgrade but remain widespread
The forecast through October indicates that water deficits will shrink and downgrade overall in Europe but remain widespread and intense in Finland. Deficits will moderate in central Europe, the Baltics, and Belarus, but intense pockets are forecast in southern Germany; Poland near Kraków; Germany near Dresden and Munich; coastal Norway; and central and northern Sweden. Surpluses are forecast for Ireland, United Kingdom, northern European Russia, and pockets in Italy and the Balkans.