In this new series, we examine recent prolonged drought in the Yangtze River Basin, its impact on the affected regions, and the historical accuracy of the Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) forecasts in East Asia.
Exceptional deficits will spread throughout the Russian Plain, northern coastal Russia, and regions near Lake Baikal. Surpluses are expected in some portions of northern Russia and north-central Kazakhstan.
Severe to exceptional deficits will occur throughout most of eastern Europe. Severe to exceptional surpluses in western Europe are expected to dissipate.
The forecast anticipates moderate to severe surplus to spread significantly throughout India. Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected to resolve in Bangladesh, but continue in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The forecast anticipates that most anomalies in the region will diminish. However, intense surplus is expected to continue in the Yorke Peninsula, southern New South Wales, and Victoria. Deficits will persist in northern and southern Western Australia.
The forecast anticipates exceptional deficits in China to mostly diminish, but persist in some northwestern and eastern regions. Surplus in eastern Tibet is expected to continue, but resolve in the rest of the province.
The forecast indicates that lingering deficits throughout Maritime Southeast Asia will mostly resolve, instead becoming severe to exceptional surpluses across much of the region. Similarly intense surpluses are expected in Peninsular Malaysia.