East Asia: Deficits continue in NW, E China

East Asia: Deficits continue in NW, E China

24 February 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in October 2024 anticipates exceptional deficits in China to mostly diminish, but persist in some northwestern and eastern regions. Surplus in eastern Tibet is expected to continue, but resolve in the rest of the province. 

Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas: 

  • Northwestern China, throughout central regions of Xinjiang, western Gansu, and western regions of Inner Mongolia.  

  • Northeastern China, in eastern regions of Liaoning and southern Jilin.

  • Southwestern China, in western Tibet. 

  • North Korea, throughout the Ryanggang Province.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

  • Southwestern China, in eastern regions of Tibet. 

  • Northwestern regions of China, in the northernmost regions of Xinjiang. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through April 2024 indicates surplus is expected to continue in pockets throughout eastern, southern, and central to west-central Tibet. However, the westernmost regions of Tibet’s Nigari Prefecture should anticipate exceptional deficits. Exceptional deficits are forecast to continue in southern Gansu and eastern Inner Mongolia. Further east, a mixture of exceptional deficits and transitional conditions are anticipated in eastern and southern regions of Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang. Northernmost regions of North Korea can expect a mixture of exceptional deficits and transitional conditions to linger. 

From May through July 2024, exceptional deficit is expected to appear throughout much of central to north-central Xinjiang. Similar deficits are expected to linger in western Inner Mongolia. Further south, eastern regions of Tibet are expected to observe continued moderate to severe surplus. Much of the remaining regions are expected to experience mostly near-normal conditions. 

The forecast for the final months – August 2024 through October 2024 – anticipates exceptional deficits in northwestern China to diminish, becoming mostly abnormal deficits with some exceptional deficits appearing in central Xinjiang and western Inner Mongolia. Eastern Tibet is expected to experience isolated pockets of moderate to severe deficit.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
In 2023, the average temperature in China was 10.71 degrees Celsius – the highest level since meteorological records in 1951. Jia Xiaolong, deputy director of the National Climate Center, said that amid global warming, “the average temperature in China last year was 0.82 degrees Celsius higher than the recent average.” Over the past year, 127 weather stations throughout China reported daily temperatures breaking or matching the highest temperatures on record. According to the report, average precipitation in China stood at 615 millimeters in 2023, which 3.9 percent lower than the overall average. 

A recent study suggests that one-third of the world's sub-basins, which include sub-basins in southern China, will lack sufficient amounts of water by 2050, exacerbating water shortages for over 3 billion people. According to an assessment from the 2023 United Nations World Water Development Report, 3.6 billion people currently do not have safe drinking water. The report also anticipates that the global urban population facing water shortages will double by 2050.Additionally, the assessment reported 1.4 million deaths in 2019 stemming from insufficient water sanitation projects. 

Japan is reporting record high February temperatures in northern regions of the country. Temperatures recently rose to 17.1 degrees Celsius in Hokkaido's Monbetsu City – similar highs usually seen in late June. The temperature was 18.8 degrees higher than usual for this time of year, and topped the previous record of 12.6 degrees, which was logged in 1960. Temperatures also reached 20.1 degrees in Akita City, northern Japan, 21.8 degrees in Kanazawa City in central Japan and 16.5 degrees in central Tokyo.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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