Europe: Severe to Exceptional Water Deficits Forecast Throughout Mediterranean Europe; Surpluses in Ireland, the UK and Denmark

Severe to exceptional water deficits are forecast to emerge throughout Mediterranean Europe, as seen in the 12-month map (below) with greatest extent and severity in eastern Spain, Corsica, Sardinia, northern Italy, southern Greece, and western Turkey. Deficits are forecast in Finland, the Baltics, Eastern Europe, and European Russia. Exceptional surpluses are forecast for Ireland, northern United Kingdom, and Zealand, Denmark.

The 3-month composites for the same 12-month time period (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail. The January through March map shows increasing deficits in Italy, Greece, and Turkey; emerging water surpluses in Ireland, Scotland, Norway, Denmark, and the Czech Republic. Deficits are forecast to re-emerge in the Baltics and much of Southern Europe from April through June, and then intensify from July through September. (It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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