Central Asia & Russia: Widespread surpluses forecast from the Ural Mountains to the Central Siberian Plateau, Moderate deficits expected in Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan

Exceptional water surpluses are forecast along rivers in Kazakhstan. Across the border into central Russia widespread surpluses are forecast for an area extending from the Ural Mountains to the Central Siberian Plateau. Moderate water deficits are expected in Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan and are forecast to intensify in the latter portion of the forecast period.

The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast to emerge in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan from January through March, and then intensify and expand eastward into Tajikistan during from July through September. Both deficits and surpluses are expected in Russia between the Urals and the Central Siberian Plateau July through September.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)