Mexico & Central America: Exceptional water deficits forecast for southern Mexico, Central America

Widespread exceptional water deficits are forecast for southern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, northwest Costa Rica, and western Panama. Surpluses may continue to emerge in Mexico’s northwestern state of Chihuahua. The 12-month composite map below is based on observed data through August and forecasts issued the last week of August 2015.

For the second year in a row severe drought has reduced agricultural output in Central America, prompting a state of alert by the Central American Agricultural Council. FAO estimates a 60 percent drop in maize and 80 percent drop in beans. Thousands of subsistence farmers have suffered partial or total loss of their summer crops, and concern is mounting over a potential humanitarian crisis and the possibility of mass migration northward. In Mexico's Guerrero state the drought has left thousands of cattle dead.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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