South America: Exceptional water deficits forecast for northern Brazil, surpluses in the south

Exceptional water deficits may persist across northern Brazil, coastal Peru, western Bolivia, and northern and southern Chile as seen in the 12-month map (below).

Surpluses are forecast for Paraguay, southern Brazil, Uruguay, and Argentina, and are expected to increase in extent and severity with exceptional surpluses in central Argentina.

In the Brazilian Amazon, exceptional and persistent drought has created unusually low river flows, negatively impacting electricity production and impeding navigation and shipping along rivers such as the Solimoes and the Rio Negro. In Manaus, capital of Amazonas, lakes are almost dry, putting the region's fisherman out of business and stranding seaplanes that use the lakes as landing strips. While northern Brazil faces drought, states in the south are fighting floods. Flooding in Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina affected over 200,000 people. In Uruguay the Yaguarón and Uruguay Rivers overflowed, blocking highways and displacing residents.

Evident in the 3-month maps (below) for the same 12-month period is the forecast of a shift from deficit to surplus in northern South America primarily from February through April, with greatest extent and severity in April. Surpluses may begin to emerge in northern Peru and coastal Ecuador, and then in Colombia, Venezuela, and Guyana.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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