Europe: Water deficits may transition to surpluses in Central Europe

Overall, water deficits may dominate much of Continental Europe as seen in the 12-month map (below), while surpluses may continue in Ireland, Scotland, and northern Sweden. 

In Poland, 80 million Euro has been awarded in compensation for drought-affected agriculture, nearly 5 million of which is to blackberry growers. The German Farmers' Association expected poor harvests, especially in cereals, fruits, vegetables, sugar beet and forage maize. Drought near the Black Sea has damaged crops in Western Russian and the Ukraine during critical planting season, though it is too early to determine overall impact on crop yields. A quarter of Russia's winter crops are in poor condition, and a third of Ukraine's winter wheat and triticale are weak and thinned, comparable to conditions in 2011 which resulted in a 29 percent drop in Ukraine output. Ski resorts in the Italian Alps have been abandoned in the last few years due to lack of snow. 

The 3-month composites for the same 12-month time period (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail. Deficits are expected to diminish in extent and severity in Europe for the next few months, and then transition to moderate surpluses in Central Europe, particularly Germany, February through April 2016.

In contrast, moderate to severe water deficits are expected to persist in the following areas: Spain, southern France, Italy, the Balkan Peninsula, Eastern Europe, Western Russia, and Finland.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)