The January 2016 Outlook indicates the presence of some exceptionally hotter temperature anomalies, continuing a pattern from 2015. (For data sources see "About this blog post" below.)

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
The forecast for both the western and eastern hemispheres continues to indicate many areas of moderate to exceptional heat anomalies (first map below). Across the northern latitudes widespread anomalies are evident from Alaska eastward through much of Canada, and exceptional anomalies - shown in dark red - appear in northern Siberia, the Tundra, and Arctic regions of Russia. Also of note are the moderate to extreme (5-40 year return period) anomalies forecast for the Iberian Peninsula and Western Europe.

Dark red, indicating exceptional (40 year or greater return period) anomalies are forecast in some of the most populous regions of the world including South Asia, Southeast Asia and the Pacific. Severe to exceptional anomalies (10-40 years or greater) are forecast for: Central America, the Pacific coast of South America, northern South America, West Africa, the Horn of Africa, southern Africa, northern Madagascar, Central Asia fanning northward from Pakistan through southern Kazakhstan, and Honshu, Japan.

Temperature outlook for January 2016. Reds indicate above normal monthly average temperature. Blues indicate below normal monthly average temperature. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline.… — Temperature outlook for January 2016. Reds indicate above normal monthly average temperature. Blues indicate below normal monthly average temperature. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
The precipitation forecast indicates more variety as indicated in the contrasts between yellows and blues. Widespread moderate dry anomalies (yellow) are forecast from Canada's Western Plains down through the Northern Rockies in the US, and from the Great Lakes Regions southward through the Mississippi Valley. Dry anomalies of note are also expected in: Peru, southeastern Africa, and eastern Borneo. Though the dark blue in northeastern Russia draws the eye to an area forecast to be exceptionally wetter, population in the region is sparse. Other areas forecast to have greater than normal precipitation: Florida, Mexico, Paraguay, Argentina, East Africa, United Kingdom, southeast China.

Precipitation outlook for January 2016. Reds indicate below normal monthly total precipitation. Blues indicate above normal monthly total precipitation. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Co… — Precipitation outlook for January 2016. Reds indicate below normal monthly total precipitation. Blues indicate above normal monthly total precipitation. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

About this blog post:

Each week, ISciences processes an ensemble of 28 seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). We present our results in a proprietary weekly report titled Global Water Monitor and Forecast: Precipitation and Temperature Outlook. This blog post summarizes our Outlook released January 4, 2016 which includes forecasts for January 2016 through September 2016 based on NOAA CFSv2 forecasts issued December 25 through December 31, 2015.

Technical details:

Each CFSv2 forecast is bias corrected by:
- Constructing probability density functions from CFSv2 hindcasts.
- Fitting the hindcast probability distribution functions to a generalized extreme value distribution.
- Using an inverse lookup to an extreme value distribution fitted to the observed temperature and precipitation record (Fan & van den Dool 2008, Chen et al. 2002).
The map colors depict the return period of the median forecast anomaly.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble spans both above normal and below normal conditions are hashed as having uncertain direction.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble divided by the median forecast is large (>0.4) are hashed as having uncertain magnitude.
Results are reported in terms of return period using a 1950-2009 baseline.