The Levant & Middle East: Widespread Water Deficits Expected through October

Extreme to exceptional water deficits may dominate the region, including central Egypt, the Arabian Peninsula, Jordan, southern Iraq, and central Iran. Record-breaking high temperatures have prompted officials in Iraq to declare a four-day holiday and have incited protests over power outages. The heat has claimed nearly 100 lives in Egypt, and drought has helped turn Iran's Hamoun Wetlands, a major fish habitat, into a dust bowl.

The first map below depicts the 12-month period May 2015 - April 2016, using observed temperature and precipitation data through July 2015, and forecasts issued the last week of July 2015. 

The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail. The forecast for August through October indicates widespread and exceptional water deficits, particularly dominant in Egypt. Conditions may moderate November through January before severe to exceptional deficits reemerge February through April. (It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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