Myanmar: Flood conditions dominate Myanmar, Bangladesh

The dominant conditions in Myanmar and Bangladesh for the 12-month period of May 2015 through April 2016 are exceptional water surplusesSome of the worst flooding in decades has affected nearly one million people. The first map (below left) depicts these conditions and is based on observed temperature and precipitation data through July 2015 and forecasts issued the last week of July 2015. 

The 3-month composites for the same 12-month period (below right) show the evolving conditions in more detail. Though severe to exceptional water surpluses occurred May through July and are forecast for August through October, conditions towards the end of the year and into next year indicate a transition to moderate to severe surpluses, along with conditions of both deficit and surplus. (It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)