Iran: Water Deficits May Persist with Varying Intensity and Extent

The forecast for Iran has not changed significantly from our prior post. Widespread water deficits are forecast for much of the country through March 2016, though deficits will vary in severity. The first map (below) reveals the dominance of severe and exceptional deficits expected during the 12-month period from April 2015 through March 2016.

WSIM Composite Water Anomaly Index for April 2015 through March 2016
(12-Month)

The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail. (It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.) Provinces along the Persian Gulf may continue to experience water deficits through September. Beginning in October the most intense deficits shift towards the central and eastern portions of Iran.

WSIM Composite Water Anomaly Index for April 2015 through March 2016
(3-Month)

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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