South America: Exceptional Water Deficits May Continue in Northern South America through March 2016

Exceptional water deficits may continue across much of northern South America throughout the remainder of the forecast period (March 2016). The current forecast is generally consistent with our prior blog post. The 3-month composites for April 2015 through March 2016 show persistence and intensification of exceptional deficits throughout most of the region, with particular challenges for northern Brazil. (It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

WSIM Composite Water Anomaly Index for April 2015 through March 2016
(3-Month)

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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