The March 2016 Outlook indicates exceptionally warmer temperatures in many areas, particularly northern Brazil, Central Asia, India, and Indonesia. Northern Brazil is also forecast to be exceptionally dry. (For data sources see "About this blog post" below.)
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
Various shades of orange and red, indicating warm anomalies, seem to blanket the globe. Deep reds - exceptional anomalies with an expected frequency of occurrence greater than 40 years - are evident in: Costa Rica, Panama, Jamaica, Amazonia, and along South America's Pacific coast from Colombia through Chile's northern tip. Also forecast to be exceptionally hotter: eastern Ukraine and the Crimean Peninsula, the Caucasus, western Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Côte d’Ivoire, northern Madagascar, the western coast of the Red Sea, Yemen, much of India, Sri Lanka, southern Myanmar, parts of Indonesia, Japan, and Tasmania.
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
Brazil's northeast and central states are forecast to be exceptionally dry, noticeable as the large red blotch that jumps out on the map. The following areas are also expected to be dry, though not as severe: Liberia, coastal Côte d’Ivoire, coastal Ghana, Sri Lanka, the Malaysian Peninsula, and Mindanao, Philippines.
Exceptionally wetter conditions (greater than 40-year return period), shown in deep blue, are forecast for the Yucatan Peninsula. Areas of the world with severe to extreme (10 to 40-year) wet anomalies ahead: Florida, southwest Mexico, Venezuela, Paraguay, South Sudan, Uganda, Kenya, Java, and south Australia.
About this blog post:
Each week, ISciences processes an ensemble of 28 seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). We present our results in a proprietary weekly report titled Global Water Monitor and Forecast: Precipitation and Temperature Outlook. This blog post summarizes our Outlook released March 2, 2016 which includes forecasts for March 2016 through November 2016 based on NOAA CFSv2 forecasts issued February 23 through February 29, 2016.
Technical details:
- Each CFSv2 forecast is bias corrected by:
- Constructing probability density functions from CFSv2 hindcasts.
- Fitting the hindcast probability distribution functions to a generalized extreme value distribution.
- Using an inverse lookup to an extreme value distribution fitted to the observed temperature and precipitation record (Fan & van den Dool 2008, Chen et al. 2002).
- The map colors depict the return period of the median forecast anomaly.
- Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble spans both above normal and below normal conditions are hashed as having uncertain direction.
- Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble divided by the median forecast is large (>0.4) are hashed as having uncertain magnitude.
- Results are reported in terms of return period using a 1950-2009 baseline.
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