Canada: Widespread water deficits forecast with excecptional deficits in BC, AB, MB, ON, QC, NB, and NL

The outlook for Canada through September 2016 (below) indicates widespread water deficits across the country with large pockets of exceptional deficits expected in parts of British Columbia, Alberta, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, and Newfoundland.

As indicated in the 3-month maps (below) for the same 12-month period, large pockets of deficits are forecast across Canada January through March, with pockets of surpluses expected in southwestern Ontario and southern Alberta. From April through June drought conditions are forecast dominate the whole country with extreme to exceptional drought in portions of British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, and Quebec. From July through September water deficits are forecast to moderate for much of the country, but pockets of exceptional deficits are expected to persist.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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