Canada: Widespread water deficits with large pockets of exceptional deficits

Widespread water deficits with large pockets of exceptional deficits are expected in Canada’s Central Plains and eastern Ontario into Quebec. The 12-month map below is based on observed data through August and forecasts issued the last week of August 2015.

The drought has already doubled feed hay prices, and wheat yields are expected to decline. Dry conditions have also reduced the oilseed crop, raising canola prices 5.8 percent. With the lowest levels of rain in 50 years Alberta declared an agricultural disaster and has initiated limits on water usage in oilsands operations. Warmer temperatures have shrunk snowpack, restricting water availability for a variety of industries including mining, hydropower, and sport fishing.

As indicated in the 3-month maps (below) for the same 12-month period, deficits from British Columbia to Manitoba may persist for the duration of the forecast period, and deficits in Ontario and Quebec may increase in extent and severity March through May. (It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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