Southern Brazil and Neighboring Counties: Water Surpluses Forecast

Water surpluses are forecast for southern Brazil and Paraguay beginning in the July through September time frame (below left) and then expanding into northern Argentina and Uruguay October 2015-March 2016 (below right). Bolivia may experience surpluses as well, predominately October through December. The 3-month composites (below) show the evolving conditions. (It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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