Southern Africa: Severe-to-Exceptional Water Deficits to Spread and Intensify through January 2016

Severe to exceptional water deficits in southern and central Angola are forecast to continue through January 2016. The deficits spread to Namibia in June, decreasing in intensity in Northern Namibia in October but remaining exceptional in Southern Namibia through January 2016. An area of exceptional deficits appears in Western South Africa in October 2015 and grows gradually through January 2016. The figure depicts the annual composite water anomaly index and shows all of these regions, along with an extensive region in Central South Africa resulting from earlier deficits.

WSIM Composite Water Anomaly Index for Feb 2015 through Jan 2016

WSIM Composite Water Anomaly Index for Feb 2015 through Jan 2016

This blog post presents results from our May “WSIM Global Water Monitor and Forecast” report. This report is based on observed temperature and precipitation through April 2015 and an ensemble of 28 temperature and precipitation forecasts issued by NOAA's CFSv2 the last week of April 2015.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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