Canada: Widespread exceptional water deficits forecast for eastern Ontario into Quebec

The outlook for Canada through August 2016 (below) indicates widespread water deficits across the country with large pockets of exceptional deficits expected in parts of eastern Ontario into Quebec and in northern British Columbia and Alberta.

The summer drought has left Christmas tree shoppers in British Columbia picking over a limited selection of "Charlie Brown" trees this holiday season. Though resorts are enjoying some mountain snow, Vancouver International Airport in British Columbia hasn't seen snowfall in over a year - the longest snow drought for the region in about 25 years. Recent precipitation has been welcome, but officials are re-evaluating Metro Vancouver's reservoir system in the context of a warming climate. Across the country in southern Quebec vintners are successfully experimenting with varieties that require a warmer climate.

As indicated in the 3-month maps (below) for the same 12-month period, large pockets of deficits are forecast across Canada December through February, with notable surpluses expected in southwestern Ontario. Surpluses in southern British Columbia are forecast to persist through May, while drought conditions are forecast for much of the rest of the country. From June through August water deficits of varying severity are forecast for nearly all of Canada. (It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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