South Asia: Water Deficits in Uttar Pradesh, Surpluses Now Possible in Odisha

Our forecast for the South Asian monsoon has changed from the one we issued last month. While the forecast for the season as a whole still calls for regional exceptional deficits, these deficits are now centered on central Uttar Pradesh, eastern Madhya Pradesh and northwest Chhattisgarh, and northeast Karnataka and northwest Andhra Pradesh. The deficits originally forecast for Odisha, are now projected to be 5-10 year surpluses in southern Odisha and northern Andhra Pradesh.

The prior forecast also suggested that deficits would be most intense during the first half of the monsoon season (May-July 2015). However, the current forecast now indicates that the deficits will be most intense during the second half of the monsoon season (August-October 2015).

WSIM Composite Water Anomaly Index for the South Asian Monsoon Season May 2015 through October 2015
(6-Month)

 

WSIM Composite Water Anomaly Index for the South Asian Monsoon Season May through July 2015 and August through October 2015
(3-Month)

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