Horn of Africa: Exceptional Water Deficits June 2015 through January 2016

Exceptional water deficits are forecast for portions of Yemen, Somaliland, Ethiopia, and Somalia beginning in June 2015 and continuing, for the most part, through January 2016. The figure captures the overall extent and magnitude of the forecast deficits. While the area of exceptional deficits shrinks somewhat in October and November 2015, it grows and reaches its greatest extent in January 2016.

This blog post presents results from our May “WSIM Global Water Monitor and Forecast” report. This report is based on observed temperature and precipitation through April 2015 and an ensemble of 28 temperature and precipitation forecasts issued by NOAA's CFSv2 the last week of April 2015.

WSIM Composite Water Anomaly Index for Aug through Oct 2015

WSIM Composite Water Anomaly Index for Aug through Oct 2015

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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