Exceptional surpluses will persist in northern regions of Mainland Southeast Asia. Most areas of Maritime Southeast Asia will observe near-normal conditions.
Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected to persist in several regions of India and emerge in Bangladesh. Some South Asian countries will observe isolated pockets of deficit.
Exceptional deficit anomalies will continue in southern regions of the Middle East, as well as in coastal regions of Turkey. Isolated pockets of exceptional deficit will also persist in Iran. Southwestern coastal areas of the Middle East will continue to observe moderate to severe surplus.
Exceptional deficits will remain in areas near Lake Baikal and in much of western Russia. Northern and southeastern Kazakhstan will observe continuing surpluses of varying intensity, as will some Russian areas near the Lena River.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period November 2021 through October 2022 include: Chile, Texas (U.S), North Africa, Portugal, and Spain. Areas of significant water surplus include: China, India, Southeast Asia, and eastern Australia. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) 7 February 2022.
Exceptional water deficits in North Africa will diminish but persist, and severe deficits are forecast in Gabon and in Nigeria south of the Benue River. Deficits will also persist in western Zambia and are expected to be extreme on the Kafue River. Moderate to exceptional deficits will emerge in central Botswana. Exceptional surpluses will persist in Tanzania, Kenya, and northern Uganda, but diminish somewhat in northern Madagascar. Surpluses east of Kinshasa in Democratic Republic of the Congo are forecast to increase in both extent and intensity, becoming severe.
Though the severity of water deficits across North Africa is forecast to shrink from August through October, the widespread extent of deficits will remain the same. Deficits will also persist in Democratic Republic of the Congo, southeastern Central African Republic, and much of Africa’s southern half, with extreme deficits forecast to persist in northern Zambia through November. From November through January nearly all of Africa is forecast to experience some degree of water deficit, primarily moderate.
Regions likely to encounter significant water deficits in the coming months include: the US Northeast and Southeast, southern Mexico, central Brazil, Finland, North Africa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Saudi Arabia, Cambodia, and Tasmania. Water surpluses are forecast for: western Wisconsin, Nebraska, eastern Texas, the Ob and Volga River Basins in Russia, central India, the Yellow and Lower Yangtze Rivers in China. This watch list is based on ISciences' Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 9 August 2016.
Exceptional water deficits are forecast to persist across North Africa, gradually diminishing in extent and severity. Deficits of varying severity will also persist in much of Africa’s southern half, with extreme deficits forecast in northern Zambia though November. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in central Botswana and in South Africa near Botswana in July. Water surpluses are forecast to persist through October in Tanzania and northeastern Mozambique.
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