ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List February 2022

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST FEBRUARY 2022

15 February 2022

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in November 2021 and running through October 2022 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List February 15, 2022 (pdf).

United States: The forecast through April indicates widespread, primarily moderate, water surpluses in much of the Ohio River Basin, intense deficits in Peninsular Florida, and widespread deficits in Texas. Mild to moderate deficits will emerge in California as surpluses retreat.

Canada: The forecast through April indicates water conditions much like those of the prior three months: vast areas of deficit, less in the southern Prairie Provinces. Intense deficits are forecast in Montreal, west of Ottawa, near Winnipeg, west of Regina, and north of Calgary.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: The forecast through April indicates exceptional water deficits in Jalisco and widespread deficits in north-central Mexico. Surpluses are forecast in Honduras, Nicaragua, Jamaica, Cuba, and the central Bahamas.

South America: The forecast through April indicates widespread water surpluses in the northern Amazon Basin and the Guianas, but exceptional deficits in southern French Guiana. Deficits are expected eastern Argentina and also in Chile where anomalies will be exceptional in the south.

Europe: The forecast through April indicates widespread, intense water deficits in Portugal, Spain, France, Estonia, and Hungary. Widespread surpluses of varying intensity are expected in European Russia and the Nordic nations.

Africa: The forecast through April indicates that water deficits in the Horn of Africa will nearly disappear. Though downgrading, deficits will persist from Cameroon through Gabon. Areas of surplus include southeastern Sudan, Tanzania, central Nigeria, and Western Cape, South Africa.

Middle East: The forecast through April indicates moderate water deficits in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia and in pockets of central Iran and central Iraq. Surpluses are forecast in several regions of Turkey including the Kizilirmak River Basin, and in Cyprus, Israel, West Bank, and Gaza.

Central Asia and Russia: The forecast through April indicates widespread water surpluses in European Russia and widespread, exceptional deficits in the Central Siberian Plateau. Deficits are also forecast from the southern Urals past Tyumen. Surpluses will persist in eastern Kyrgyzstan.

South Asia: The forecast through April indicates water surpluses of varying intensity in many regions. Surpluses will be extreme to exceptional in Karnataka and Kerala, India; throughout Nepal; and from central Pakistan into Afghanistan. Deficits are forecast in India’s Far Northeast.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: The forecast through April indicates that water surpluses will remain widespread and intense in much of Southeast Asia but will shrink and downgrade in Indonesia and Pacific regions. Anomalies will be intense in the Lower Mekong River Basin.

East Asia: The forecast through April indicates persistent, widespread, intense water surpluses in Northeast China and the Yellow River Basin. Deficits in Southeast China will nearly disappear. Deficits will emerge in South Korea and southern Japan; surpluses in North Korea will downgrade.

Australia & New Zealand: The forecast through April indicates that, while downgrading, water surpluses will remain widespread in eastern Australia from Rockhampton through the Murray-Darling Basin. Areas of deficit include Tasmania and New Zealand.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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