East Asia
ISciences staff
East Asia: Deficits continue in NW, S China

Exceptional deficits will remain in northwestern and southern regions of China, while isolated surplus anomalies will continue in western and northeastern areas of the country. 

East Asia: Deficits continue in NW, S China
Central Asia & Russia
ISciences staff
Central Asia & Russia: Deficits persist in ...

Exceptional deficits will continue in southeastern, northwestern, and western Russia, while northeastern and southeastern Russia will observe severe to extreme surpluses. Regions of Kazakhstan can expect moderate to extreme surpluses in northern and southeastern regions of the country. 

Central Asia & Russia: Deficits persist in SE, NW, W Russia
Middle East
ISciences staff
Middle East: Deficits to continue in S Saudi ...

Pockets of exceptional deficit will occur in southern regions of Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Oman, as well as in isolated areas of Iran and Turkey. Small regions of southwestern Saudi Arabia and western Yemen will experience severe to extreme surplus. 

Middle East: Deficits to continue in S Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman
Mexico & C. Amer. & Carib
ISciences staff
Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: ...

Northwestern Mexico will continue to experience exceptional deficits, while central and southern areas of the country will observe severe to exceptional surpluses. Much of Central America can anticipate moderate to severe surplus.

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Surpluses emerge in C, S Mexico
Southeast Asia & Pacific
ISciences staff
Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Surpluses to ...

Exceptional surpluses will persist in northern regions of Mainland Southeast Asia. Most areas of Maritime Southeast Asia will observe near-normal conditions. 

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Surpluses to persist in N Mainland SE Asia

Kinshasa

Africa: Water surpluses persist in Tanzania & Kenya

Africa: Water surpluses persist in Tanzania & Kenya

Exceptional water deficits in North Africa will diminish but persist, and severe deficits are forecast in Gabon and in Nigeria south of the Benue River. Deficits will also persist in western Zambia and are expected to be extreme on the Kafue River. Moderate to exceptional deficits will emerge in central Botswana. Exceptional surpluses will persist in Tanzania, Kenya, and northern Uganda, but diminish somewhat in northern Madagascar. Surpluses east of Kinshasa in Democratic Republic of the Congo are forecast to increase in both extent and intensity, becoming severe.

Africa: Intense water surpluses to persist in Tanzania & Kenya

Africa: Intense water surpluses to persist in Tanzania & Kenya

The forecast through July indicates that exceptional water deficits across northern Africa will diminish, but intense deficits will persist in Libya, Niger, Egypt, and Sudan. Deficits will downgrade in Gabon and southern DRC but remain severe. Deficits will persist in western Zambia and are expected to be extreme on the Kafue River. Relatively mild deficits are forecast for southern Africa. Intense surpluses will persist in Tanzania, Kenya, northern Uganda, and northern Madagascar.

Africa: Extreme water deficits forecast for Zambia & Malawi

Africa: Extreme water deficits forecast for Zambia & Malawi

A notable improvement is forecast for southern Africa and the Horn of Africa where conditions will transition from intense to mild water deficit. Intense deficits are, however, forecast scattered across the southern Sahara and the Sahel, and in a stretch from southern Democratic Republic of the Congo through eastern Zambia into Malawi. Deficits of varying severity remain dominant in many other regions, but surpluses are forecast for northeastern South Sudan and Tanzania, and will be exceptional in Tanzania. After April, severe deficits will emerge across northern Africa and will persist in Zambia.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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