Southeast Asia & Pacific
ISciences staff
Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Pockets of ...

Exceptional surpluses will persist in northern regions of Mainland Southeast Asia. Most areas of Maritime Southeast Asia will observe near-normal conditions. 

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Pockets of surpluses persist throughout SE Asia
South Asia
ISciences staff
South Asia: Surplus continues throughout India, ...

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected to persist in several regions of India and emerge in Bangladesh. Some South Asian countries will observe isolated pockets of deficit. 

South Asia: Surplus continues throughout India, Bangladesh
Middle East
ISciences staff
Middle East: Exceptional deficits to continue ...

Exceptional deficit anomalies will continue in southern regions of the Middle East, as well as in coastal regions of Turkey. Isolated pockets of exceptional deficit will also persist in Iran. Southwestern coastal areas of the Middle East will continue to observe moderate to severe surplus. 

Middle East: Exceptional deficits to continue in S countries
Central Asia & Russia
ISciences staff
Central Asia & Russia: Deficits linger near ...

Exceptional deficits will remain in areas near Lake Baikal and in much of western Russia. Northern and southeastern Kazakhstan will observe continuing surpluses of varying intensity, as will some Russian areas near the Lena River.

Central Asia & Russia: Deficits linger near Lake Baikal
Africa
ISciences staff
Africa: Surplus to continue along the Sahel

Exceptional deficits will mostly resolve in northern, southern, and central countries, but will persist in the Horn of Africa. Surpluses along the Sahel are expected to remain. 

Africa: Surplus to continue along the Sahel

Cape Town

Africa: Extreme water deficits forecast for Zambia & Malawi

Africa: Extreme water deficits forecast for Zambia & Malawi

A notable improvement is forecast for southern Africa and the Horn of Africa where conditions will transition from intense to mild water deficit. Intense deficits are, however, forecast scattered across the southern Sahara and the Sahel, and in a stretch from southern Democratic Republic of the Congo through eastern Zambia into Malawi. Deficits of varying severity remain dominant in many other regions, but surpluses are forecast for northeastern South Sudan and Tanzania, and will be exceptional in Tanzania. After April, severe deficits will emerge across northern Africa and will persist in Zambia.

Cape Town Drought: Forecast shows retreat, but is it soon enough?

Cape Town Drought: Forecast shows retreat, but is it soon enough?

With media attention focused on the dire water situation in Cape Town, South Africa - the city is currently expected to run out of water on 16 April - some of our followers are asking why our most recent blog post and maps didn't echo the alarm. Our 12-month forecast ending September 2018 shows merely "moderate" water deficits ahead for the region, something you'd expect to see once every 5 to 10 years. Certainly no alarming red blobs indicating "exceptional" water deficits, those that might occur only once in 40 or more years. How can that be, given the desperate and very real situation in Cape Town right now?

Africa: Water deficits recede in Somalia & Southern Africa

Africa: Water deficits recede in Somalia & Southern Africa

Most areas of exceptional water deficit will downgrade through March. Moderate deficits are expected across northern Africa, with more severe conditions in Morocco, Western Sahara, and Guinea-Bissau. Intense deficits are also forecast for southeastern Nigeria, southwestern Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon. Intense deficits will retreat in southern Africa. Surpluses will linger in southern Sudan, northeastern South Sudan, Tanzania, northern Mozambique, and northern Madagascar. After March deficits in northern Africa will intensify, but south of the Sahara milder conditions will prevail.

Africa: Water deficits forecast for Mauritania, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Burkina Faso

Africa: Water deficits forecast for Mauritania, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Burkina Faso

Exceptional water deficits are expected to diminish considerably, leaving severe conditions across the north but relatively moderate conditions in the south. Some intense deficits are forecast for western Mauritania, southwestern Burkina Faso, the Chinko Nature Reserve in Central African Republic, southwestern Namibia, and Cape Town, South Africa. Surpluses are forecast for southeastern Sudan, northeastern South Sudan, the Niger Delta, Gabon, north-central Uganda, eastern Tanzania, Okavango Delta in Botswana, and the central border between Botswana and South Africa.

ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List October 2017

ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List October 2017

Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from July 2017 through June 2018 include: Amapá (Brazil), Estonia, Ukraine, Turkey, Syria, Jordan, Madhya Pradesh (India), western Cambodia, and Tasmania (Australia). Water surpluses are forecast for: Tripura, Mizoram, and Manipur (India), western Myanmar, the Upper and Middle Yangtze River (China), and the Upper Ob River and Tom River Basins and the Transvolga Region (Russia). This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 9 October 2017.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

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