Exceptional deficits will remain in areas near Lake Baikal and in much of western Russia. Northern and southeastern Kazakhstan will observe continuing surpluses of varying intensity, as will some Russian areas near the Lena River.
Exceptional deficits will mostly resolve in northern, southern, and central countries, but will persist in the Horn of Africa. Surpluses along the Sahel are expected to remain.
Severe to exceptional surplus will affect several regions of southern Mexico and Central America. Severe to exceptional deficits will continue in northwestern and central areas of Mexico.
Widespread severe to exceptional surpluses in western and central Europe will mostly resolve, becoming near-normal conditions. Eastern European countries are expected to observe widespread deficits of varying intensity.
The forecast through December indicates nearly normal water conditions for most major metropolitan areas, with moderate surpluses around Vancouver. Intense deficits are forecast for large blocks of northern Quebec, central and northeastern Manitoba, and central and northwestern Alberta. Areas of significant surplus include southern British Columbia, northern reaches of the Prairie Provinces, and Ontario from Lake Superior to the province’s western border.
The forecast through November indicates some moderate water deficits around Montreal and between Toronto and Ottawa, and severe deficits southeast of Winnipeg. A vast arc of exceptional deficit will persist in northern Quebec from Lake Mistassini to the province’s eastern border. Intense deficits will also persist in central and northeastern Manitoba and central and northwestern Alberta. Surpluses are forecast from north-central Alberta into northwestern Manitoba.
The forecast through September indicates that moderate water surpluses will persist from Lake Huron to Toronto but surpluses in southern Quebec, including the Gatineau River Watershed and Montreal, will nearly disappear. Moderate to extreme deficits will persist in southern Manitoba. Exceptional deficits are expected in southern Vancouver Island, British Columbia, and surpluses in the southern Columbia Mountains.
The forecast through June indicates that exceptional deficits will retreat from Quebec’s Ottawa-Gatineau Watershed; surpluses in Northern Ontario will transition to deficit; and deficits in the Middle Reaches of the Athabasca River Watershed in Alberta will become exceptional. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast across southern Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Intense surpluses will emerge in the Columbia River Basin in British Columbia, and deficits near Vancouver will persist but downgrade.
The major changes forecast through May are that exceptional water deficits will shrink in Quebec though large pockets will persist, and widespread surpluses in Northern Ontario will transition to deficit. As for major population areas, intense deficits are forecast for Southern Ontario and through southern Quebec; near Vancouver, British Columbia; near Winnipeg, Manitoba; and surrounding Regina, Saskatchewan. Deficits of varying intensity are forecast in many parts of the country. In British Columbia, surpluses will increase in the southeast and transition to deficit in the southwest.
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