Canada: Water deficits will persist in northern QC, MB, AB

16 October 2019

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month outlook for Canada through June 2020 indicates a vast arc of exceptional water deficit in northern Quebec from Lake Mistassini curving northeast to the province’s eastern border. Large pockets of intense deficit are also forecast for eastern Quebec at the mouth of the St. Lawrence River, eastern and northwestern Ontario, central and northeastern Manitoba, and central and northern Alberta.

ISciences_Canada_Composite_Adjusted_201907-202006_12mo_panel.png

Other areas forecast to experience intense deficits include central British Columbia at the intersection of the Fraser and Nechako Rivers, Saskatchewan near Regina and in the Upper Assiniboine River Watershed, and Manitoba around Winnipeg.

A large block of extreme to exceptional surplus is forecast surrounding Fort McMurray, Alberta leading north past Lake Athabasca and east past Churchill Lake, Saskatchewan. Extreme surplus conditions are forecast for Manitoba’s northwest corner. In British Columbia, surpluses of generally lesser intensity are expected southeast of Fort St. John in the north, surrounding Williston Lake, and in the southern Columbia Mountains. Surpluses are also forecast for the southwest corner of Ontario, near Lake Huron’s North Channel, and in eastern continental Newfoundland and Labrador.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through December indicates nearly normal conditions for most major metropolitan areas, though moderate surpluses are expected around Vancouver.

ISciences_Canada_Composite_Adjusted_201907-202006_3mo_panel.png

A vast arc of exceptional deficit will persist in northern Quebec (QC) from Lake Mistassini to the province’s eastern border, and a block at the mouth of the St. Lawrence River. Surpluses will shrink somewhat and moderate in eastern continental Newfoundland and Labrador (NL); some pockets of deficit are forecast for Newfoundland. Deficits will shrink but persist with intensity along Ontario’s (ON) eastern border and will persist in the province’s northwest quadrant. Surpluses will nearly disappear near Hudson Bay in ON, but will increase in the Middle Albany River region, near Lake Huron’s North Channel, and between Lake Superior and the Manitoba (MB) border. Moderate surpluses will emerge northeast of Lake Superior.

In the Prairie Provinces, exceptional deficits are forecast in a large block north of Lake Winnipeg, MB, and in the northeast along Hudson Bay. Intense surpluses will persist in MB’s northwestern corner and from north-central Alberta (AB) through Fort McMurray and into northern Saskatchewan (SK). Severe to exceptional deficits will persist in northwestern AB and in the Middle Reaches of the Athabasca River Watershed in the center of the province. In British Columbia (BC), surpluses are forecast in the south and in the northeast surrounding Williston Lake. Deficits will shrink and downgrade but persist at the intersection of the Nechako and Fraser Rivers in central BC; in the north fanning out from Prince Rupert on the Pacific Coast; and spanning the border with Yukon.

From January 2019 through March 2020, the extent, intensity, and distribution pattern of anomalies will remain much the same as the forecast for the prior three months. Surpluses will increase in southern AB and in southern MB along the Assiniboine River as it nears Winnipeg.

The forecast for the final three months – April through June 2020 – indicates both deficit and surplus anomalies will shrink leaving normal conditions across the southern regions of the provinces. Deficits will persist, however in most aforementioned areas of QC, MB, and AB, as well as surpluses in northern reaches of the Prairie Provinces and pockets of southern BC.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
[added 28 October 2019]
Though fire season in Canada’s Yukon is now officially over, the region’s director of fire management characterized it as the most “complex and challenging” in 15 years, citing a longer season that crept into September as well as faster-moving fires. One of the challenges was the long-term drying of forest fuels, leading to more aggressive fire behavior. Another distinction was a rare pyrocumulus cloud, a smoke column so hot it produces lightning. Rare enough in the driest, hottest months of July and August, the presence of the pyro cloud in September this year suggests that the climate is changing.

Months after flooding on the Chilcotin River in British Columbia’s interior destroyed 120 properties in July, ranchers in the region are still waiting for promised crop compensation from the provincial government. Many lost much of their hay crop and are struggling to provide feed for their cattle.

In Manitoba, it’s drought that has depleted feedstocks in the Interlake and Parkland regions, pushing desperate farmers in 16 municipalities in a state of agricultural disaster after a hot, dry summer to appeal for help from the province’s agricultural minister.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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