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Europe: Water deficits persist in Finland, Estonia, Latvia

Europe: Water deficits persist in Finland, Estonia, Latvia

Notable in the near-term forecast is the retreat of water surplus in Central Europe and a transition to moderate deficit. Deficits in Northern Europe are expected to persist and increase, with exceptional deficits in Finland, Estonia, and Latvia. Surpluses will remain intense in Hungary, southern Romania, Moldova, and eastern Bulgaria, and will increase in Ukraine. Surpluses will continue to emerge in Ireland and the UK, and will spread on the Iberian Peninsula. After June, mild deficits are forecast for Central Europe, more intense deficits in Northern Europe, and surplus in the western Iberian Peninsula.

Europe: Water deficits to persist in the Mediterranean

Europe: Water deficits to persist in the Mediterranean

Exceptional water deficits are expected to diminish considerably, but deficits of varying severity remain in the forecast for Finland, England, Belgium, France, Portugal, Spain, and across the Mediterranean through the Balkans. Exceptional surpluses will continue to emerge in western Russia and Poland, and surpluses are also forecast Romania, Moldova, Lithuania, Belarus, Germany, Czech Republic (Czechia), Austria, northern United Kingdom, Ireland, and southern Norway. From February through April surpluses will begin to moderate somewhat and the extent of deficits will shrink.

Europe: Water surplus forecast for UK, Ireland, Poland, Slovenia

Europe: Water surplus forecast for UK, Ireland, Poland, Slovenia

Exceptional water deficits are expected to nearly disappear from October on, but pockets will remain through December in central Finland and the Norwegian Sea coast. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast for the remainder of Finland and moderate deficits for much of Southern Europe. A vast expanse of surpluses is forecast in European Russia, and surpluses are also predicted in Poland, Slovenia, Croatia, UK, and southern Norway. From January through March surpluses are forecast to increase across Northern Europe, particularly in European Russia, while deficits persist across Southern Europe.

Europe: Severe to exceptional water deficits forecast in Mediterranean Europe, Finland, & the Baltics; surpluses in Ireland, Wales, Scotland

Severe to exceptional water deficits are forecast to emerge throughout Mediterranean Europe, with greatest extent and severity in eastern Spain, Sardinia, Sicily, Campania (Italy), southern Greece, and Crete. Deficits are also forecast in Finland and the Baltics. Surpluses are forecast for Ireland, Wales, and Scotland.

ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List March 2016

Regions likely to encounter significant water deficits in the coming months include: the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys, US; southern Mexico; northern Brazil; Mediterranean Europe; Finland and Estonia; coastal West Africa; western Turkey; Yemen; and Southeast Asia. Significant water surpluses are forecast for: the Southern Plains and southern Florida, US; northwestern Mexico; central Argentina; Ireland; Kenya; central Kazakhstan; Java; and southeast China. This watch list is based on ISciences' Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 9 March 2016.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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