Australia & New Zealand
ISciences staff
Australia & New Zealand: Surplus to persist ...

Widespread extreme to exceptional surpluses will dissipate in northern regions of Australia, as will exceptional deficits in several regions of the continent. Severe to extreme surpluses will persist in isolated regions of Western Australia and Northern Territory. 

Australia & New Zealand: Surplus to persist in Western Australia, Northern Territory
Canada
ISciences staff
Canada: Deficits remain in Canadian Shield, ...

Exceptional deficits will remain widespread in several areas of the Canadian Shield and Atlantic regions. Exceptional surplus is anticipated in much of the Arctic Region. 

Canada: Deficits remain in Canadian Shield, Atlantic regions
United States
ISciences staff
United States: Deficits to occur in SW, N, NE ...

Widespread deficits of varying intensity will occur in the southwest, northern, and northeastern states. Severe to extreme surpluses will remain in Florida, as well as in most noncontiguous states.  

United States: Deficits to occur in SW, N, NE states
South Asia
ISciences staff
South Asia: Surplus persists in North-central, ...

extreme to exceptional surpluses will persist in north-central and south-central regions of India. Exceptional surpluses are expected to emerge in eastern regions of the country, and in some areas of Nepal and Bangladesh. Extreme to exceptional deficits will expand in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

South Asia: Surplus persists in North-central, south-central India
Africa
ISciences staff
Africa: Surpluses continue along the Sahel

Exceptional deficits throughout Africa will persist in northwestern, northern, and central countries. Surpluses will remain along the Sahel.

Africa: Surpluses continue along the Sahel

Southwest

United States: Water deficits ahead for South Atlantic States, surpluses Upper Midwest

United States: Water deficits ahead for South Atlantic States, surpluses Upper Midwest

The near-term forecast through January indicates several striking changes from the prior three months: a transition in the Gulf Coast from water surplus to deficit, a broad path of deficits in the South Atlantic States, and surpluses from the Upper Midwest through the Ohio River Valley into the Northeast. In the spring normal water conditions should return to the Ohio River Valley and the Northeast, surpluses will continue to emerge in the Upper Mississippi, and deficits will moderate in the Lower Mississippi, Texas, and the South Atlantic States.

United States: Water deficits to emerge this spring in the Appalachians, the Ohio River Valley, & the Northern Plains

Overall, conditions in many parts of the US are forecast to be drier than normal. Moderate to exceptional water deficits are expected in the East through the Appalachians, the Midwest through the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys, across the Northern Plains and parts of the Central Plains, and in the Southwest. In the summer and early fall exceptional deficits are forecast on the Missouri and Yellowstone Rivers. Surpluses are forecast in Idaho and northeastern Nevada, the shared border of Minnesota and Iowa, the Canadian and Rio Grande Rivers, and southern Florida.

ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List April 2016

Regions likely to encounter significant water deficits in the coming months include: the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys; southern Mexico; Guatemala and El Salvador; northern Brazil; Finland; Niger; southern Somalia; Zambia; Southeast Asia; and, Mongolia. Significant water surpluses are forecast for: central Argentina; Ireland and the UK; Tanzania; western Ethiopia; central Kazakhstan; northern India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan; western Borneo; West Java; and Southeast China. This watch list is based on ISciences' Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 7 April 2016.

United States: Numerous regionally significant water anomalies ahead

Water deficits may dominate the northern US from the Pacific Northwest eastward through Minnesota in the coming months, with surpluses in the Upper Mississippi. The forecast for California indicates a transition from deficits to surpluses by February. Surpluses may persist in the Central and Southern Plains and along Mississippi River tributaries. Extensive deficits are forecast March through May from the central Gulf Coast region northward through the Great Lakes region.

United States: Water deficits may persist in the Northwest, surpluses in Texas

  • Drought is forecast to persist in northern California, though some areas may have both water deficits and surpluses;
  • Exceptional drought may persist in the Pacific Northwest;
  • Severe water deficits are forecast for Minnesota;
  • Exceptional water surpluses are forecast for much of Texas, and along the Red River, the Arkansas River, the Rio Grande River, and in western Nebraska; surpluses are also forecast in the surrounding states of Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas, Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona;
  • A wide belt of moderate to exceptional surpluses is expected from the Central Plains eastward;
  • Southeast states are forecast to have characteristics of both water deficits and surpluses.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

Copyright 2022 ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List is the property of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. It is protected by U.S. copyright laws and may not be reproduced in any way without the written permission of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of information on ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Web pages, including information derived from Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM). This information may include forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent ISCIENCES, L.L.C.’s assumptions and expectations in light of currently available information and using the highest professional standards. Actual results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. provides such information "as is," and disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will ISCIENCES, L.L.C. be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.