The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will persist in northwestern China, southwestern Mongolia, and in the Yangtze River Basin. Surpluses of severe to exceptional intensity are expected to appear in western, southern, and northeastern regions of China.
The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses will persist throughout India and Nepal. Exceptional deficits will expand throughout regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will occur in southwestern states, as well as in some areas of the Midwest. Severe to exceptional surpluses will linger in southern regions of Florida and in much of the noncontiguous U.S.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period February 2022 through January 2023 include: Estonia, France, North Africa, Iran, Mangystau (Kazakhstan), Chile, and Texas and the U.S. West. Areas of significant water surplus include: eastern Australia, Indonesia, China, India, and Tanzania. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) 5 May 2022.
Through September, water surpluses along the Mississippi River, its tributaries, and states on the western bank of the river will moderate, but significant surpluses are forecast in a column from South Dakota through central and eastern Texas and will include extreme to exceptional anomalies in many areas, particularly South Dakota. Areas of deficit include the Pacific Northwest, northwestern Minnesota, the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan, and along the Atlantic coast in North Carolina.
The forecast through August 2019 indicates persistent water surpluses in a wide path through the center of the country in the Mississippi River Basin and well into the Missouri, Arkansas, and Red River Basins, including exceptional anomalies in South Dakota. Surpluses of varying intensity are expected in the Rockies, central Arizona, California, Oregon, and in the Northeast. Deficits are forecast for pockets of Washington, North Dakota, Wisconsin, and southeastern states.
The forecast through July indicates widespread water surpluses of varying intensity a vast area on either side of the Mississippi River. Exceptional anomalies are forecast around Sioux Falls, and along the Mississippi River on either side of Memphis and from Louisiana to the Gulf. Surpluses will increase in the Rockies and shrink slightly and moderate in California. In the Pacific Northwest, deficits will shrink in Washington; Oregon will transition from deficit to moderate surplus.
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