Exceptional surpluses will persist in northern regions of Mainland Southeast Asia. Most areas of Maritime Southeast Asia will observe near-normal conditions.
Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected to persist in several regions of India and emerge in Bangladesh. Some South Asian countries will observe isolated pockets of deficit.
Exceptional deficit anomalies will continue in southern regions of the Middle East, as well as in coastal regions of Turkey. Isolated pockets of exceptional deficit will also persist in Iran. Southwestern coastal areas of the Middle East will continue to observe moderate to severe surplus.
Exceptional deficits will remain in areas near Lake Baikal and in much of western Russia. Northern and southeastern Kazakhstan will observe continuing surpluses of varying intensity, as will some Russian areas near the Lena River.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period February 2022 through January 2023 include: Estonia, France, North Africa, Iran, Mangystau (Kazakhstan), Chile, and Texas and the U.S. West. Areas of significant water surplus include: eastern Australia, Indonesia, China, India, and Tanzania. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) 5 May 2022.
Through September, water surpluses along the Mississippi River, its tributaries, and states on the western bank of the river will moderate, but significant surpluses are forecast in a column from South Dakota through central and eastern Texas and will include extreme to exceptional anomalies in many areas, particularly South Dakota. Areas of deficit include the Pacific Northwest, northwestern Minnesota, the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan, and along the Atlantic coast in North Carolina.
The forecast through August 2019 indicates persistent water surpluses in a wide path through the center of the country in the Mississippi River Basin and well into the Missouri, Arkansas, and Red River Basins, including exceptional anomalies in South Dakota. Surpluses of varying intensity are expected in the Rockies, central Arizona, California, Oregon, and in the Northeast. Deficits are forecast for pockets of Washington, North Dakota, Wisconsin, and southeastern states.
The forecast through July indicates widespread water surpluses of varying intensity a vast area on either side of the Mississippi River. Exceptional anomalies are forecast around Sioux Falls, and along the Mississippi River on either side of Memphis and from Louisiana to the Gulf. Surpluses will increase in the Rockies and shrink slightly and moderate in California. In the Pacific Northwest, deficits will shrink in Washington; Oregon will transition from deficit to moderate surplus.
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