Australia & New Zealand
ISciences staff
Australia & New Zealand: Surpluses ...

The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria. 

Australia & New Zealand: Surpluses continues in north-central Australia
East Asia
ISciences staff
East Asia: Deficits continue in NW China, ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will persist in northwestern China, southwestern Mongolia, and in the Yangtze River Basin. Surpluses of severe to exceptional intensity are expected to appear in western, southern, and northeastern regions of China. 

East Asia: Deficits continue in NW China, Yangtze River Basin
South Asia
ISciences staff
South Asia: Surpluses expand throughout India ...

The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses will persist throughout India and Nepal. Exceptional deficits will expand throughout regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan. 

South Asia: Surpluses expand throughout India and Nepal
United States
ISciences staff
United States: Exceptional deficits to emerge ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will occur in southwestern states, as well as in some areas of the Midwest. Severe to exceptional surpluses will linger in southern regions of Florida and in much of the noncontiguous U.S. 

United States: Exceptional deficits to emerge in SW states
Southeast Asia & Pacific
ISciences staff
Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Surpluses ...

The forecast indicates that severe to exceptional deficits will resolve throughout much of Southeast Asia. Exceptional surpluses are expected to persist in some countries within Mainland Southeast Asia. 

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Surpluses emerge in Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam

Bristol Bay

United States: Water deficits from Ohio to the Gulf

United States: Water deficits from Ohio to the Gulf

In the US, water deficits are forecast to persist through February from Pennsylvania and Ohio southward to the Gulf but will diminish in severity thereafter. Much of the far Northeast, with the exception of Vermont, is expected to return to near-normal conditions December through February. Surpluses will continue to emerge in Wisconsin, southern Minnesota, and northern Iowa through February, and Idaho, western Montana, and Washington through May. Moderate deficits will emerge March through May in Maine, southern New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut, and from North Carolina through Florida. 

United States: Water surpluses in Upper Midwest, Northwest, deficits in the South

United States: Water surpluses in Upper Midwest, Northwest, deficits in the South

The outlook for the United States through January indicates that water deficits will dominate the Ohio River Valley west through Arkansas and south to the Gulf, as well as the Delaware and lower Susquehanna drainages. Surpluses of varying severity are forecast for a vast block of the Northwest, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and eastern North Carolina. From February through April the severity of both deficits and surpluses will diminish and some states in the Midwest and Northeast will transition to near-normal conditions. However, surpluses will persist in much of the Northwest and Upper Midwest.

United States: Severe water deficits to emerge in the Northeast, East Coast, Upper Midwest

The overall outlook for much of the United States indicates only moderate water anomalies for much of the country. However the forecast for May through July includes the emergence of some severe deficits in the Northeast, along the East Coast, and in the Upper Midwest which will persist through October. Exceptional water deficits will also persist in much of southern California and southwestern Arizona. Severe to exceptional surpluses are forecast in northeastern Nevada and across the border into Idaho, eastern Texas, parts of Nebraska, scattered pockets in the Northwest, south-central Alaska, and the western half of the island of Hawaii. 

United States: Water deficits to emerge this spring in the Appalachians, the Ohio River Valley, & the Northern Plains

Overall, conditions in many parts of the US are forecast to be drier than normal. Moderate to exceptional water deficits are expected in the East through the Appalachians, the Midwest through the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys, across the Northern Plains and parts of the Central Plains, and in the Southwest. In the summer and early fall exceptional deficits are forecast on the Missouri and Yellowstone Rivers. Surpluses are forecast in Idaho and northeastern Nevada, the shared border of Minnesota and Iowa, the Canadian and Rio Grande Rivers, and southern Florida.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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